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Modulis 5 Β· Options
12/12

Calendar spreads β€” selling time against time

Every spread in the course so far has been vertical: same expiry, different strikes (5-6 Put Spread, 5-11 Collar). A calendar spread flips the axis β€” same strike, different expiries. You buy a long-dated option and sell a short-dated one against it. You earn not from the direction of the price, but from the fact that the short-dated option loses time value faster than the long-dated one.

A simple analogy

You hold a long-term lease on an apartment (105 days) and sublet the same apartment month by month. The monthly sublet, recalculated per day, costs more than your long lease β€” you collect that difference. But you can only sublet as many rooms as you rent yourself. One room more β€” and that is no longer a sublet, it is a promise you have nothing to back with.


What it is

TermMeaning
Calendar spreadSame strike, different expiries: long the far one + short the near one
Diagonal spreadBoth the strike and the expiry differ
BaseThe far-dated long option β€” your "long lease"
LayerThe near-dated short option at the same strike β€” the "sublet"

There is one engine: time value does not decay in a straight line. The closer to expiry, the more time value an option loses in a single day (theta grows as the deadline approaches β€” 5-3). Numbers from a real book: a 14-day layer burns roughly 2.7 times faster per day than a 105-day base, a 49-day one about 1.5 times, a one-day one about 10 times. You sell what burns fast and hold what burns slowly.


Two roles, no third one

RoleWhat it isWhen it is opened
Base (long)A quarterly pure strangle: long put + long call, both ~0.30–0.35 delta from spotOnly when DVOL is below 48–50 (vol is cheap)
Layers (short)Monthly (and one-day) shorts at the same strike as the baseOnly when DVOL is above 45 (the premium is worth it)

Where this runs


The coverage invariant β€” you check it, you don't feel it

Before any order, all four points must be green:

#ConditionWhat it protects
1short puts ≀ base long putsEvery short put has a long underneath it
2short calls ≀ base long callsEvery short call has a long above it
3short call strike β‰₯ base call strikeIn a rally the long call covers the short fully
4short put strike ≀ base put strikeIn a drop the long put covers the short fully

At least one violated β†’ no new orders. This is the difference between "covered" and "naked": every short has a long that covers it both above and below. The course does not teach naked options (5-4, 5-7).

Without this table it is not a strategy

Selling layers on margin is risky in itself. Without the coverage invariant and the capital rule (below) this is not a calendar spread β€” it is a naked short position with a pretty name.


The layer cycle

Entry conditions β€” all of them together

ConditionLimit
Nearest layer≀ 7 days to expiry or already expired
MM after the new layerbelow 65%
DVOLabove 45
Coverage checkall 4 points green
Moratoriumno longer in force
Sizeshorts ≀ base longs (puts and calls counted separately)
Spot near the strike (delta above 0.40)the layer is skipped

What happens at expiry

ScenarioActionResult
Short OTM (the normal beat)NothingThe short disappears, the premium stays, the longs are untouched β†’ a window for a new layer. The default state, ~8–9 months a year
Short ITMWait until expiry (extrinsic burns in your favour), on settlement day β€” the pairSell N same-strike base longs + (while the old cap exists) buy back N cap shorts. Settlement is paid with realised long profit, the book shrinks proportionally
Short has burned β‰₯ 85% or ≀ 0.004 ETH remainsBuy back earlyThe remaining premium no longer pays for the risk; capacity is freed

The pair β€” never separately

An ITM short is not closed early and not left open β€” it is paid off with the pair on expiry day. Selling a long on its own leaves naked shorts; buying back a short on its own throws away extrinsic that would still have burned in your favour.

The roll β€” the base is never held to expiry

With ~70 days left the whole book is moved to the next quarter. The order matters:

  1. New longs are bought first β€” coverage never breaks, not even for a day
  2. Strikes are reset to the new spot (0.30–0.35 delta), not copied
  3. Old longs: the winning side can ride to the pin, the dead one is closed for what is left
  4. Only then β€” new layers

If vol is high at roll time β€” a cash pause. The calendar does not pull.


The real campaign β€” with a liquidation and a minus

This is the author's real position, not a recommendation. The course executes no trades and holds no funds. All results, losses included, are published openly: dashboard.defiriskos.com/eth.html. State as of 2026-09-11, ETH $2,457.

The book (abridged)

InstrumentSideQtyDaysRole
ETH-25DEC26-1500-PLONG7105base (put side)
ETH-25DEC26-2500-CLONG5105base (call side)
ETH-25DEC26-3000-CSHORT5105old cap β€” a mistake, carried until closed in pairs
ETH-12SEP26-2500-CSHORT11layer (one-day)
ETH-25SEP26-2500-CSHORT214layer
ETH-30OCT26-2500-CSHORT249layer

Results β€” openly

MetricValue (2026-09-11)
Net ETH accumulated (metric #1)+0.0462 ETH ($113). Start 2026-08-21: βˆ’0.188 ETH β†’ change +0.234 ETH
Realised since 08-01βˆ’0.0417 ETH (options βˆ’0.0361 Β· settlement βˆ’0.0045 Β· negative-balance interest βˆ’0.0011)
Liquidation 2026-08-19 21:075Γ— 3000C forced buy-back, βˆ’0.2245 ETH. Cause: too little capital (~$2,500 against 10 shorts), not the strategy itself. Consequence: 14-day moratorium 08-19 β†’ 09-02
SEP/OCT layersSold when ETH was well below 2500 (avg. 0.006 / 0.0175 ETH) β€” now ATM, MTM deep in the red; only a pin saves them, if ETH ≀ 2500 on settlement day

What happened on 08-19 and why it is worth a lesson

The base long 2500C was capped with a short 3000C β€” that turned the base into a vertical 2500/3000 spread, which stops earning above 3000. But the layers (short 2500C) keep losing in a rally. Above 3000 the short calls add up: 5 layers + 5 caps = 10 vs 5 longs β€” 5 contracts naked. The coverage invariant (point 2) was violated, and ~$2,500 of capital was not enough for ten shorts. The result β€” a forced buy-back and βˆ’0.2245 ETH.

The conclusion, written into the doctrine on 09-07: the base must be a pure strangle. The cap is now carried until closed in pairs; ~22% probability it will be ITM by December.


Risk rules β€” "paid for in blood"

RuleMeaning
MoratoriumAny liquidation β†’ 14 days of no new shorts
Size is a constantAfter a loss the size is not increased; growth only follows equity β†’ base β†’ layers
The MM ladderbelow 65% for new orders Β· 80% β†’ buy back the nearest layer's calls (not the longs!) Β· 90% β†’ deposit capital NOW
CapitalMargin balance β‰₯ 2Γ— MM when spot = strike; β‰₯ ~$300 for every short contract; deposit when the distance to liquidation is less than 12% or MM is above 65%
Collateral currency= the book's currency. Target +0.3–0.5 ETH standing balance. A negative ETH balance costs ~9.6% APR. Do not convert settlement proceeds into USD
Vol directionBuy with DVOL below 48, sell above 45. Never the other way round
Monetising the insuranceLong put ITM β†’ sell half by levels, not all of it

Closing by the speed of the move

MoveAction
Sharp ↑ (above 8% in 1–3 days) and MM above 80%Buy back the nearest layer's calls. Do not touch the base longs β€” they are earning
Sharp ↓Close nothing β€” this is the best side (the long puts). Take put profit in parts by levels
Slow ↑, spot crosses the layer strike Γ— 0.97Pre-settlement: compare "settlement + pair" vs "buy-back". Wait β€” extrinsic burns in your favour; the pair only on expiry day, if ITM

One account β€” one risk pocket

The campaign runs in the same cross-margin account that also holds the SOL strategy's insurance (the SOL puts). An ETH margin crisis would liquidate the SOL insurance too. Separate strategies in the same account are not separate.

Accounting in ETH, not USD

The campaign's goal is to accumulate ETH. Metric #1: net ETH accumulated = ETH balance + value of the longs βˆ’ obligations of the shorts. Every decision is checked with one question: is that number larger afterwards?


An honest expectation

Not a money machine


Summary

AspectMeaning
StructureLong quarterly strangle (base) + short monthlies at the same strike (layers)
EngineThe near option burns ~2.7Γ— faster than the 105-day base (14-day layer)
Vol ruleBuy with DVOL below 48, sell above 45
CoverageThe 4-point invariant β€” violated β†’ no orders
ITM expiryThe pair on settlement day, never separately
RollWith ~70 days left, new longs first
Capitalβ‰₯ 2Γ— MM at the pin, β‰₯ ~$300/short, 14-day moratorium after a liquidation
Real campaign+0.0462 ETH net Β· βˆ’0.0417 ETH realised Β· βˆ’0.2245 ETH liquidation (2026-09-11)
Quick check
How does a calendar spread differ from a vertical one (e.g. a Put Spread)?
Practice task
0 / 5
A paper coverage check

The task β€” run the real book through the coverage invariant and the capital rule by hand (~20 min). All on paper: no buying, no selling.

This is a PAPER check β€” we are learning to read a book, NOT to trade. Selling layers on margin without coverage and the capital rule is a naked position. DO NOT BUY OR SELL ANYTHING.

This is learning, not investing β€” use only small amounts you treat as tuition.

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CUj6wYQLSBxidzm7Lqtkxbw2d8Sv2H2tbJELyAjR756M

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