Educational content, not investment advice. Crypto-asset values fluctuate.

Modulis 5 Β· Options
9/11

Implied Volatility in Practice

What is Implied Volatility (IV)?

Implied Volatility (IV) β€” the market's expectation of how much the price will move over a given period. It is not a forecast of direction. It is only a measure of the size of the move.

IV is measured in percent:

IVWhat it means annuallyWhat it means monthly
20%Price will move ~20%~5.8% per month
50%Price will move ~50%~14.4% per month
74%Price will move ~74%~21.4% per month
120%Price will move ~120%~34.6% per month

SOL IV is typically 70-80%. That means the market expects roughly 20-23% of price movement per month. Our example position's Long Put ($90 strike) was bought right in that zone β€” at 74%.

Why are crypto options more expensive than stock options?

Because crypto moves around a lot more:

AssetVolatility (IV)Put priceInsurance cost %
S&P 500~15%~1.0% of priceCheap
Apple stock~25%~2.5% of priceReasonable
SOL~74%~7.4% of priceExpensive
BTC~55%~5.0% of priceModerate

SOL protection is ~3x more expensive than Apple stock protection. This is exactly why we need Put Spread and Covered Call β€” to bring the cost down.

IV Crush β€” what is it?

IV Crush β€” a sudden drop in volatility after a major event.

Before the event: nobody knows what will happen. Uncertainty is high. IV is high. Options are expensive. After the event: everything is clear. IV drops. Options get cheaper.

StageIVPut price
2 weeks before the news85%$8.20
1 day before95%$9.50
After the news65%$5.80
1 week after70%$6.30

What this means for you:

IV Crush and our strategy

When is the best time to buy protection?

The rule is simple: buy when it's calm. Don't buy during panic.

SOL IV levelMarket moodWhat it means for insurance cost
< 55%Very calm (rare for SOL)Cheapest time to insure
55-70%Calmer than usualInsurance cheaper than average
70-80%SOL's usual levelPrice close to normal (our example β€” 74%)
80-100%Elevated stressInsurance is expensive
> 100%PanicMost expensive β€” you pay double for the same strike

What this looks like during a roll: if the Put roll timing coincides with high IV:

  1. The old Put sells for more (high IV also lifts its remaining value)
  2. After waiting a few days for IV to drop, the new Put costs less
  3. But between these two steps, the portfolio is left without protection
⚠️

Waiting without protection is risky. If IV is high because of a real crisis, the price can keep falling. Never go more than 3-5 days without Put protection.

DVOL β€” crypto's "fear index"

Traditional markets have VIX (the S&P 500 fear index β€” it measures stock market volatility). In crypto, Deribitad has DVOL (the Deribit Volatility index β€” crypto's equivalent):

IV across different time horizons

IV differs depending on the option's duration:

DurationSOL IVWhy
7 days75-95%Short-term β€” very sensitive to news
30 days70-82%The most common horizon (usually what people mean by "SOL IV")
90 days70-78%Close to our zone
120 days68-76%Our strategy's zone β€” this is where our 74% sits
180 days65-74%Lowest IV

We use 120 days β€” the sweet spot where IV is already more normal, but there's still enough liquidity.

IV and the cost of protection

Our Put Spread's cost depends directly on IV:

The price table below is per unit, while the net is calculated with our actual quantities: Long Put Γ—200, Short Put Γ—100 and Γ—100.

IV levelLong Put $90 (Γ—200)Short Put $65 (Γ—100)Short Put $60 (Γ—100)Net spread cost
55%-$3.30+$2.60+$1.60-$240
70%-$5.90+$4.60+$2.75-$445
74%-$6.50+$5.00+$3.00-$500
90%-$9.70+$7.30+$5.00-$710

At 74% this is exactly our example position: -$6.50 Γ— 200 + $5.00 Γ— 100 + $3.00 Γ— 100 = -$1,300 + $500 + $300 = -$500.

What the table shows: the higher the IV, the more expensive the net Put Spread. That's because the $90 Put we're long (almost ATM) reacts more strongly to IV than the $65 and $60 Puts we're short (far OTM). Short Put premium grows, but it doesn't offset the pricier Long Put leg. High IV doesn't make protection free β€” it makes it more expensive.

Once you understand IV, you can see for yourself when protection is cheap and when it's overheated β€” and pick your timing to buy the way experienced traders do.

Module summary

What we've covered in this module so far:

  1. Option anatomy β€” Call/Put, strike, expiry, premium
  2. Moneyness zones β€” ITM/ATM/OTM, intrinsic vs. time value
  3. The Greeks β€” Delta, Theta, Gamma, Vega
  4. Deribit β€” where and how to trade options
  5. Protective Put β€” portfolio protection
  6. Put Spread β€” cheaper protection
  7. Covered Call β€” income from selling
  8. Managing the cycle β€” the 120-day cycle, Put rolls
  9. Implied Volatility β€” how volatility affects prices

Two lessons remain in this module: 10. Payoff Diagrams and 11. Collar.

Next: Payoff diagrams β€” how to see a position's floor, ceiling, and breakeven point in a single chart.

Quick check
What does Implied Volatility (IV) measure?
Practice task
0 / 5
Measure the market's fear (IV)

IV is the market's mood thermometer. This paper exercise (~15 min) will teach you to read it in a live market. No trading β€” just observation.

We're learning to read IV and DVOL, NOT to trade. DON'T BUY ANYTHING β€” the decision about timing stays on paper only.

This is learning, not investing β€” use only small amounts you treat as tuition.

You just read live IV yourself, compared short and long expiry, and evaluated DVOL β€” a skill most crypto holders never pick up.

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