The Simplest DCA Strategy: +100% → Sell Half → Free Coins

Most beginners do the same thing: they buy once the price has already risen and everyone's talking about it, they sell once it's dropped and it feels scary, and they have no exit rule at all. Not because they're foolish, but because they make the decision in the moment, exactly when emotions run highest.

This lesson covers one of the simplest accumulation strategies there is. It requires no market forecasting, no chart reading, no daily checking. It needs three things: a fixed amount, one mathematical threshold, and a decision you make only once.

It's not a "money machine" and it doesn't turn a bad asset into a good one — that's a separate section below. But it solves the core problem every beginner faces: when to buy, when to sell, and what to do with what's left.

Step 1 — Accumulation (DCA)

DCA (dollar-cost averaging) means: you buy for a fixed amount at a fixed interval, regardless of price. For example, 100 EUR on the first day of every month. Price is 50 — you buy 100 EUR worth. Price is 25 — still 100 EUR worth. Price is 80 — 100 EUR worth.

Why this works:

• When it's cheap, the same money buys more coins; when it's expensive, it buys fewer. So your average entry price naturally sits below a simple average of the prices.
• Emotion is removed from the buying decision. There's no "is now a good time?" question — the time is in your calendar.
• The number of decisions drops to one. You decide the amount and the interval once. After that, it's just execution.

How to calculate your average entry price

Your average entry price is all the money you've put in, divided by all the coins you hold. Not an average of prices — a ratio of money to coins. Six purchases of 100 EUR each:

You put in 600 EUR, you hold 15,514 coins. Average entry price: 600 / 15,514 = 38.67.

Compare: a simple average of the six prices would be (50+40+25+32+45+60)/6 = 42. Your average price is lower (38.67), because in cheap months you bought more coins. That's the mathematical edge of DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → — it happens automatically, with no guessing involved.

Step 2 — The +100% trigger and selling half

The rule: when the price reaches 2× your average entry price — you sell 50% of the position.

The math is simple:

• You put in 1,000 EUR. The price has doubled from your average, so the position is worth 2,000 EUR.
• You sell half — you get 1,000 EUR. All your invested capital is back.
• What's left is coins worth 1,000 EUR at market price. That's your free coins (house money): a position that no longer contains any of your original capital.

Why exactly half, and exactly 2×? Because it's the only combination where the arithmetic comes out even: selling half at the doubling point returns you exactly what you put in. Any other number needs a calculator and a decision — and decisions are exactly what we're trying to avoid.

What happens to DCA after the trigger?

Two options, both valid — the important thing is to choose in advance:

(a) DCA continues, a new "round" begins. The free coins go onto a separate "shelf" and stop being counted. New purchases start a new round with a new average price, and once that round hits its own 2×, you sell half again. This way accumulation never stops, and every round has its own clean math.

(b) DCA is paused until the price drops back below 2× the average. Logical, but it has a flaw: you have to decide when it's "cheap enough" to resume — which is already a forecast.

We recommend (a) — it's simpler, because it requires no decision at all. The only requirement: free coins and new-round coins are tracked separately. On a sheet of paper, in a spreadsheet, or in an app — but separately. Mix them together and your average price becomes meaningless, and the trigger stops working.

Step 3 — What to do with the free coins

This is where beginners most often give back what they won. Not because of a bad strategy, but because they have no rule — and without one, every price move becomes a decision: "sell now or wait?", "maybe another 20%?", "maybe it comes back?".

The rule for free coins gets written in advance, before you have any. Three sample rules — pick one, or build your own from them:

A. Ladder selling — "a quarter, every time it doubles"

Every time the free coins' price doubles again from your last sale price, you sell 25% of them. You repeat this every time. The position is never sold down to zero — every step leaves three quarters behind.

• Good for: someone who wants to take profit and never fully exit.
• Advantage: one rule works at any price, no tables needed.
• Drawback: doublings are rare — most years nothing happens, which is psychologically hard.

B. Fixed price levels

You write down 3–4 price levels in advance, based on the first round's average price, and how much you sell at each one. Example with an average price of 38.67:

• Good for: someone who feels calmer with concrete numbers written down and visible.
• Advantage: zero interpretation — a level is either hit or it isn't.
• Drawback: the levels might never be reached, and choosing 3×/5×/10× is itself a somewhat arbitrary decision.

C. "Permanent core"

The free coins are never sold. They become a long-term core, and you only take profit from new DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → rounds (each round → 2× → half). The core only ever grows.

• Good for: someone who believes in the asset over 10+ years and wants zero extra decisions.
• Advantage: the simplest of the three; no "when to sell" question at all.
• Drawback: the core's value can drop 80–90% and stay there for years — that's not theory, that's crypto market history (see lesson 0-6).

None of the three is "correct." The correct one is the one you'll actually stick to when the price is three times higher and everyone's shouting "it'll keep going" — or three times lower and everyone's shouting "it's over."

Calculator

Pick an amount, a number of months, and one of the price scenarios — you'll see when the trigger would fire, how much you'd recover, and how many free coins would be left. In the second part, apply rule A / B / C to the same scenario. The scenarios are illustrations, not forecasts.

Pay attention to the "bear market" scenario: in the first half the price falls, DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → keeps buying cheaper, the average price drops — and that's exactly why the recovery hits the trigger sooner than a one-time purchase made at the start would have. And the opposite: in a "sideways market" the trigger might not fire at all.

Risks and mistakes

Taxes. In Lithuania, a sale is a taxable event. Selling half at 2× realizes a taxable gain, even if it feels like "I just got my own money back." The gain is calculated as the difference between the sale price and the acquisition cost, an annual tax-free allowance applies, and above it, personal income tax (GPMGPMGPM — Lithuanian personal income tax; 15% on realised crypto gains.Read the lesson →) is due. Specific figures and how to calculate them — see lesson 2-8 on taxes; we deliberately leave them out here so there's a single place to keep them up to date.

The trigger might not fire for years. The strategy has no time guarantee whatsoever. In a sideways or falling market, 2× might never arrive — and then you simply hold a DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → position with no exit. That's not a flaw in the strategy, it's a condition of it.

Asset selection. This strategy only suits an asset you'd want to hold long-term even without any rule at all. It does not turn a bad asset into a good one — DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson →-ing into a token headed to zero is just a slower way to lose money. Our examples use a neutral "asset X"; BTC or ETH are mentioned only as illustrations, not recommendations.

Liquidity and transaction fees. For small DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → amounts, exchange commissions and network fees are large as a percentage (see 1-3 and 1-9). A 10 EUR purchase with a 1.49 EUR minimum fee has already lost 15% before it even starts. Your amount needs to be large enough that the fee is a fraction of a percent, not a double-digit chunk.

Not adjusting the rule after the fact. The most common mistake: the price hits 2×, and you think "I'll wait for another 20%." Then that 20% never comes, the price comes back down, and the rule is dead. A rule only works when it's executed mechanically, especially when it feels like it's not worth it.

Template — fill this in before your first purchase

Copy this, fill it in, and put it somewhere you'll see it. The review date exists so you revisit the rule by the calendar, not by emotion.

Asset: ______
DCA amount / interval: ______ / ______
Trigger: 2× average price → sell 50%
DCA after trigger: (a) new round / (b) pause
Free coins rule (A / B / C / custom): ______
Review date: ______

Summary

1. DCA: a fixed amount, at a fixed interval, regardless of price. The amount should be one whose loss wouldn't change your life.
2. Average entry price = money invested / coins held. Recalculated after every purchase. It's lower than a simple average of prices — that's the DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → advantage.
3. Trigger: price = 2× average → sell 50%. You recover all your capital, and free coins remain. DCADCADollar Cost Averaging — buying a fixed amount at regular intervals, smoothing out the average purchase price.Read the lesson → continues in a new round, tracked separately.
4. Free-coins rule (A ladder / B fixed levels / C permanent core) is written down in advance and never changed after the fact.
5. Risks: "free" doesn't protect against a drop; a sale is taxable; the trigger might not arrive for years; the strategy doesn't fix a bad asset; small purchases are expensive because of fees.

In the next module: how to protect this (and any other) asset — seed phrases, scam patterns, and what to do when something goes wrong. And if you want to go deeper on exit rules once you have a larger portfolio — lesson 6-9, "Exit strategy".